Duncan.

Thanks for the suggestion that I clarify my views.

Reader might like to know that I’ve put a comment on Stephen’s blog about my comments there. I’ve also expanded my comment on my orginal post, and on a follow-up post at http://analystrelations.blogspot.com/2006/03/why-free-research-wont-kill-high-value.html

Forrester and Gartner have performed well on the NASDAQ. Compared to the NASDAQ 100, they have performed better than average over the last six years, and especially well over the last year. They are trading at 40 times earnings and have delivered profitability year after year. That is more than a quarter. Since, fundamentally, these are not especially exciting businesses we have to admit that these are delivering substantial shareholder value. When your firm or mine become worth 40 times earnings, then we can start to joke about shareholder value.

Duncan.

Stephen’s answer is even longer than yours, Duncan also answered -wow, this is becoming a great blog-flame.

Analyst Influence Originally uploaded by RedMonk Red. Update: In the comments to this piece, Duncan Chapple has noted that I didn’t provide a link back to the original source of the chart that he featured on his blog, which…

I’m not quite sure what to make it of it - and maybe you all can help me parse this, but yesterday’s post on Duncan’s post seems to have struck quite a nerve. It’s not too often that I become…

Analyst Influence Originally uploaded by RedMonk Red. Update: In the comments to this piece, Duncan Chapple has noted that I didn’t provide a link back to the original source of the chart that he featured on his blog, which…

Please don’t use ad hominem attacks on my colleagues. You went a bit beyond the call of duty there, in my opinion. how can you plagiarise someone by pointing at their work?

I am willing to say the data says very little about influence broadly, and certainly specifically your CIO sales-based methodologies, in which RedMonk probably scores very poorly. We happen to think there are other constituencies with influence outside the CIO’s office.

but the chart does say something about web influence. Quoting you:

“Last week I saw some research by HFN which assesses the importance of IT research companies by making use of publicly available data…

.. This analysis is based on the visits to their external websites. Since almost all client access of research is online, and since the research of many non-clients also runs through analysts’ websites, this measure is an excellent start to any analysis.”

It says something about web traffic. I am inclined to say you talking it down here is a bit odd.

The Gartner statement was not intended as a joke. I see shareholder value as a long term trend, rather than something that spikes in a quarter. So we’ll see. I personally think they will have to do more in the web space.

I realise the instrument is blunt, and its not clear what it says, but it says something.

Please take care not to misrepresent this research. The notion that this shows “influence” is yours, and is not the interpretation that either I nor the researchers at HFN have of the data. The data simply show web traffic. This is not the same as influence on buyers, and the correlation between the two is as strong as the correlation between voting at the UN and being a superpower.

Lighthouse conducts CIO surveys to research the influence of analysts on sales. The results are different.

I assume your point about Gartner failing to capture shareholder value is a joke… its share price is growing strongly.

Duncan.

PS Thanks for mentioning that the research is HFN’s. Not everyone has had the grace to do so.