Comments on: What do “numbers” analysts do, anyway? On quantitative research

By: James Governor

James Governor — Wed, 08 Feb 2006 00:52:59 +0000

no intention to merge with anyone. wouldnt need to to provide a single library, anyway.

i will be putting forward some models to solve the OSS market share issue soonest… wait and see.

By: James

James — Sat, 04 Feb 2006 21:39:22 +0000

Is it possible to be quantitative when covering open source software or does this only apply to proprietary vendors?

When will RedMonk merge with others so that corporate buyers can get all their information from a single source?

By: Arnie McKinnis

Arnie McKinnis — Thu, 02 Feb 2006 05:18:38 +0000

From Data to Wisdom….
We collect data
Add context to get information
Add understanding to get knowledge
Add judgement and values to get wisdom.

Interesting Post. IMHO, most industry “experts” never really get past the information stage - to creating actual knowledge, let alone going all the way to wisdom. Right, wrong or indifferent - this happens regardless of the approach

By: James Governor

James Governor — Thu, 02 Feb 2006 01:16:42 +0000

i tend to think IDC and Gartner’s can do their own comms. why don’t they offer, or post themselves? if someone wants to offer i won’t cut it. but i am not going to go out of my way in that regard.

I am also still skeptical about what you’re saying. poll size? The market share numbers in many cases come from polling the vendors, not the market. that is a SMALL sample set, not a large one. If you are claiming they do a correlation between market polling and market share ok - but i have my doubts, and many vendors i have spoken to do as well.

if they really poll the market, why are the numbers on OSS technology so whack?

what you said - they can track boxes based on vendor claims - thus the agreement between the two firms. when it comes to real market measurement i am far more skeptical.

anyone from IDC or Gartner can comment here- why don’t *you* ask them to post something.

By: ARonaut

ARonaut — Wed, 01 Feb 2006 00:37:23 +0000

James, IDC and Dataquest (the two 800 pounds gorillas) get their numbers from polling vendors and surveying both the channel and users (IT budget surveyes).

The difference between polling and surveying is the sample size -polling usually includes all market participants. This has a direct effect on statistical accuracy (dispersion and error margins): on some commodity markets (mobile phones, pc’s, etc), IDC and Gartner/Dataquest frequently come within 1/2 point of each other. On application software and other “licenced goods”, market numbers are usually much harder to track.

Why don’t you invite IDC or Gartner to do a guest post?

By: James Governor

James Governor — Tue, 31 Jan 2006 15:19:25 +0000

thanks ARonaut, that’s a good point. pigeonhole is a good work considering you’re talking about the “bucket game”

bear in mind that IDC, at least, also carries out ROI/TCO studies - which is probably another addition to the numbers analyst taxonomy. the post was never intended to be once and future, so feedback is welcome.

taxonomy

1. market research
2. market share analysis
3. ROI and TCO studies

your comment does indicate a bias on your part however, talking of pigeonholing. more than those “just doing surveys”…?

Where do you think IDC and Gartner get their numbers though? they do surveys of major vendors. i dont know about canalys.

By: ARonaut

ARonaut — Mon, 30 Jan 2006 23:43:51 +0000

James, You seem to pigeonhole numbers analysts into those doing surveys, forgetting IDC, Gartner (Dataquest), Canalys, Context, etc… They produce market share information and tend to be called “numbers analysts” more than those just doing surveys…

By: Jaime Cardoso

Jaime Cardoso — Sat, 28 Jan 2006 03:06:11 +0000

Having had a lot of coleagues that went into the Statistics field of work, I can only say that I totally understand Dale’s comment.
I remember when a company ordered a study of customer satisfaction and, on the other hand, it gave the Market Research Firm the desired results. They had a lot of work comming up with the right questions to get the desired results but, all the interviews were conducted and the data was processed normally.